Data Visualization
A Visualization of the US Unemployment and its Relationship with Currencies
This article is an extension of a previous one, in which I attempt to validate the theoretical understanding of Non Farm Payrolls against historical data. I’m looking at the performance of a chart for an entire month after the NFP announcement, analysing movements until the next announcement rolls around. My methodology and presentation is as follows:
I begin by taking each month’s announcement, which relates to the expected change in employment as a result of the previous month’s economic performance. I note the forecasted value, the actual value and the net difference. This net difference will be used to make a prediction about the expected value of the Dollar -> a positive difference means a rise in employment and subsequently a rise in the value of the Dollar, a negative difference means a fall in employment and subsequently a fall in the value of the Dollar. I then include the chart of the next month’s GBPUSD movements alongside some comments on the performance. Since the NFP release occurs at 08:30 on the first Friday of every month, the chart is on a 30 minute time period.
It should be noted that the time on the x axis of all the graphs is in GMT, since this is my current timezone.